「行百里半九十」、「成功是屬於永不放棄的人」關於成功的故事或是名言，我們都聽過很多，而且多半是跟堅持劃上等號。如果有人說放棄才能成功，你可能會笑笑的，然後想說這個人是不是瘋了？
「堅持到底」真的好嗎?
以爬聖母峰來說，放棄，怎可能會登上聖母峰呢？不管再怎麼想，都是要「堅持」才有辦法登頂吧？但反過來想，如果堅持登頂會讓你喪命，這樣的堅持是好的嗎？
《停損的勝算：世界撲克冠軍教你精準判斷何時放棄，反而贏更多》開頭就以登聖母峰為例，在基地營的時候，領隊會將攻頂日的折返時間訂在下午一點，在這個時間，如果還沒能登頂，就一定得折返，即使是已經走到了峰頂的影子下。因為比起上山，下山可能會遇到更惡劣多變的天候，以及自己更差的生理狀況，所以爬聖母峰下山途中，喪命的人數是上山的八倍。
在這個狀況下，能不能果斷放棄，甚至攸關生死。
如果你對自己的決斷非常有自信，那麼《停損的勝算》有兩個非常怵目驚心的例子：
第一、曾經跟大家一再強調必須在下午一點前折返的優秀登山領隊羅伯．霍爾，為了等客戶登頂，等到下午四點，最後跟客戶一起命喪聖母峰。
第二、研究「放棄與加碼付出」主題，最了解陷入不可自拔地步會導致嚴重後果的學者傑佛瑞．Ｒ，立志要爬完英格蘭的百大高峰，在爬第一百座的福特山時，因天候惡劣，傑佛瑞．Ｒ的登山夥伴決定掉頭。但他不肯走，獨自往目標前進，幾天後他的遺體在山上被發現。
放棄，為什麼那麽難？
連登山專家跟專研放棄的心理學家都因堅持栽了跟斗。放棄，為什麼那麽難？
書中提到幾個原因：
１、損失規避的心態，當我們遇到虧損時，除了更可能堅持必敗的行動方針，還很容易加碼付出。
２、沉沒成本謬誤，讓我們聚焦已付出的心力與時間，而捨不得放棄。
３、稟賦效應，讓我們不合理地提升擁有物的價值，導致不願意放棄。
4、不作為偏誤，認為改變現狀才是做決定，因而決定維持現狀(事實上維持現狀也是一個決定)。
5、對於舊身份的執著，致使有新的機會出現，也不願放棄舊身分。
那知道原因了之後，我們就能避免這些狀況嗎？真的也不一定，前面提到的兩個案例，就證明了知與行之間是有差異的。
要如何更有效停損或是放棄，有人認為可以在每次做決定時，假裝自己第一次做決定，書中舉了對於前景不佳的公司，是否會加碼投資的心理實驗說明，「假裝自己第一次做決定」並沒有辦法讓自己脫離「虧損再加碼」的狀態。
先訓練猴子比先建基座重要
所幸《停損的勝算》分享幾個很有幫助的方法：
1、猴子與基座：想像你要訓練猴子站在公園的基座上，用幾支火把表演雜耍，讓它變成一個賺錢的節目。這個節目最困難的點，莫過於「訓練猴子用火把表演雜耍」，但很多時候，我們會因為最關鍵的項目非常棘手，導致我們選擇先「建基座」，麻痺自己當前已有進展，又或是因為已經「建基座」，有了沈沒成本，導致不願意放棄。所以可以運用 「猴子與基座」的心理模型，想想當前最關鍵、困難的「訓練猴子」是哪個部分，幫助我們適時放棄。
2、透過「事前驗屍」方式，預想事件中可能會發生的問題，並為未來的行動「設立終止條件」，最簡單的方式，是為某個狀態加上日期，比如藉由事先驗屍，得出「通常如果對方的主管都不出席會議，那麼通常合作案就很難談成」等徵兆，因此設定「如果第三次的研討會議，對方的主管仍未出席，那麼就直接放棄合作，轉而開發新專案」，避免繼續虛耗。
3、尋找放棄教練，讓旁觀者協助看清事實，重點是，要允許他們說真話。另外，也可以讓決定開始與放棄的人選不同，改善放棄的決策品質。
4、心態方面，要讓自己習慣向前看而非向後看，向後看會讓自己看到許多已投注的心力，向前看才能比較清楚看見未來。作者也以撲克牌界流傳的話「打牌是常常久久的事」，幫助自己適時收手，就如「登聖母峰」其實並非最終目標，「登聖母峰，且平安下山返家」才是，爬山也是長長久久的事，山一直都會在，不需要執著要在當次登頂。
5、標記一路上的進展。跨越終點線才算成功，是僵化的，不僅會讓我們得失心過重，也會容易忽略周遭變化與轉機，當我們標記一路上的進展，給予自己肯定後，或許雖然沒能達成當初設定的目標，卻會有其他收穫。
不過放棄，不是指躺平，什麼都不做，而是停止陷入當前泥沼困境，轉而發現其他契機。書的最後以螞蟻搬運食物為例，即使面前有一大塊西瓜，在螞蟻集體合作搬運的過程中，仍會有少數螞蟻脫隊探勘其他區域，也因此讓團隊有備用方案的可能，這樣萬一這塊西瓜被掃掉了，還會有其他糧食。同樣的，探勘也可以協助我們多元發展技能、興趣、機會，抵禦未知的可能。
後見
看完《停損的勝算》，想到NBA公鹿隊爭冠失利，記者問當家球星字母哥會不會認為這是失敗的一年，字母哥回應，這一年他們也付出了努力，也有收穫，不能因為沒有奪冠，就否定這一切。
讓成功與失敗只有一線之隔，讓我們忍不住關注已經付出的心力，而不願放棄。又畢竟我們看的很多在車庫創業成功的例子，卻很少看到在車庫創業失敗的例子，所以會認為堅持是美德，殊不知，放棄也是一種美德。
這本書涵括很多商業、政策、運動場的實例，以及之前沒看過心理實驗，來談論放棄與停損，各章節環環相扣也都有重點，非常推薦一讀！
61 comments
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