「行百里半九十」、「成功是屬於永不放棄的人」關於成功的故事或是名言，我們都聽過很多，而且多半是跟堅持劃上等號。如果有人說放棄才能成功，你可能會笑笑的，然後想說這個人是不是瘋了？
「堅持到底」真的好嗎?
以爬聖母峰來說，放棄，怎可能會登上聖母峰呢？不管再怎麼想，都是要「堅持」才有辦法登頂吧？但反過來想，如果堅持登頂會讓你喪命，這樣的堅持是好的嗎？
《停損的勝算：世界撲克冠軍教你精準判斷何時放棄，反而贏更多》開頭就以登聖母峰為例，在基地營的時候，領隊會將攻頂日的折返時間訂在下午一點，在這個時間，如果還沒能登頂，就一定得折返，即使是已經走到了峰頂的影子下。因為比起上山，下山可能會遇到更惡劣多變的天候，以及自己更差的生理狀況，所以爬聖母峰下山途中，喪命的人數是上山的八倍。
在這個狀況下，能不能果斷放棄，甚至攸關生死。
如果你對自己的決斷非常有自信，那麼《停損的勝算》有兩個非常怵目驚心的例子：
第一、曾經跟大家一再強調必須在下午一點前折返的優秀登山領隊羅伯．霍爾，為了等客戶登頂，等到下午四點，最後跟客戶一起命喪聖母峰。
第二、研究「放棄與加碼付出」主題，最了解陷入不可自拔地步會導致嚴重後果的學者傑佛瑞．Ｒ，立志要爬完英格蘭的百大高峰，在爬第一百座的福特山時，因天候惡劣，傑佛瑞．Ｒ的登山夥伴決定掉頭。但他不肯走，獨自往目標前進，幾天後他的遺體在山上被發現。
放棄，為什麼那麽難？
連登山專家跟專研放棄的心理學家都因堅持栽了跟斗。放棄，為什麼那麽難？
書中提到幾個原因：
１、損失規避的心態，當我們遇到虧損時，除了更可能堅持必敗的行動方針，還很容易加碼付出。
２、沉沒成本謬誤，讓我們聚焦已付出的心力與時間，而捨不得放棄。
３、稟賦效應，讓我們不合理地提升擁有物的價值，導致不願意放棄。
4、不作為偏誤，認為改變現狀才是做決定，因而決定維持現狀(事實上維持現狀也是一個決定)。
5、對於舊身份的執著，致使有新的機會出現，也不願放棄舊身分。
那知道原因了之後，我們就能避免這些狀況嗎？真的也不一定，前面提到的兩個案例，就證明了知與行之間是有差異的。
要如何更有效停損或是放棄，有人認為可以在每次做決定時，假裝自己第一次做決定，書中舉了對於前景不佳的公司，是否會加碼投資的心理實驗說明，「假裝自己第一次做決定」並沒有辦法讓自己脫離「虧損再加碼」的狀態。
先訓練猴子比先建基座重要
所幸《停損的勝算》分享幾個很有幫助的方法：
1、猴子與基座：想像你要訓練猴子站在公園的基座上，用幾支火把表演雜耍，讓它變成一個賺錢的節目。這個節目最困難的點，莫過於「訓練猴子用火把表演雜耍」，但很多時候，我們會因為最關鍵的項目非常棘手，導致我們選擇先「建基座」，麻痺自己當前已有進展，又或是因為已經「建基座」，有了沈沒成本，導致不願意放棄。所以可以運用 「猴子與基座」的心理模型，想想當前最關鍵、困難的「訓練猴子」是哪個部分，幫助我們適時放棄。
2、透過「事前驗屍」方式，預想事件中可能會發生的問題，並為未來的行動「設立終止條件」，最簡單的方式，是為某個狀態加上日期，比如藉由事先驗屍，得出「通常如果對方的主管都不出席會議，那麼通常合作案就很難談成」等徵兆，因此設定「如果第三次的研討會議，對方的主管仍未出席，那麼就直接放棄合作，轉而開發新專案」，避免繼續虛耗。
3、尋找放棄教練，讓旁觀者協助看清事實，重點是，要允許他們說真話。另外，也可以讓決定開始與放棄的人選不同，改善放棄的決策品質。
4、心態方面，要讓自己習慣向前看而非向後看，向後看會讓自己看到許多已投注的心力，向前看才能比較清楚看見未來。作者也以撲克牌界流傳的話「打牌是常常久久的事」，幫助自己適時收手，就如「登聖母峰」其實並非最終目標，「登聖母峰，且平安下山返家」才是，爬山也是長長久久的事，山一直都會在，不需要執著要在當次登頂。
5、標記一路上的進展。跨越終點線才算成功，是僵化的，不僅會讓我們得失心過重，也會容易忽略周遭變化與轉機，當我們標記一路上的進展，給予自己肯定後，或許雖然沒能達成當初設定的目標，卻會有其他收穫。
不過放棄，不是指躺平，什麼都不做，而是停止陷入當前泥沼困境，轉而發現其他契機。書的最後以螞蟻搬運食物為例，即使面前有一大塊西瓜，在螞蟻集體合作搬運的過程中，仍會有少數螞蟻脫隊探勘其他區域，也因此讓團隊有備用方案的可能，這樣萬一這塊西瓜被掃掉了，還會有其他糧食。同樣的，探勘也可以協助我們多元發展技能、興趣、機會，抵禦未知的可能。
後見
看完《停損的勝算》，想到NBA公鹿隊爭冠失利，記者問當家球星字母哥會不會認為這是失敗的一年，字母哥回應，這一年他們也付出了努力，也有收穫，不能因為沒有奪冠，就否定這一切。
讓成功與失敗只有一線之隔，讓我們忍不住關注已經付出的心力，而不願放棄。又畢竟我們看的很多在車庫創業成功的例子，卻很少看到在車庫創業失敗的例子，所以會認為堅持是美德，殊不知，放棄也是一種美德。
這本書涵括很多商業、政策、運動場的實例，以及之前沒看過心理實驗，來談論放棄與停損，各章節環環相扣也都有重點，非常推薦一讀！
43 comments
A clear cut above the usual noise on the subject, and a look at pineharbortradegallery only made that gap wider in my view, the kind of place that earns its visitors through quality rather than through aggressive marketing or sponsored placements which is increasingly the only way most sites stay afloat across the modern web.
Great work on keeping things readable, the post never drags or repeats itself which I really appreciate, and a stop at valuecartshop added a bit more context that fit naturally with what was already said here, no need to read everything twice to get the point being made today.
Really grateful for content like this, it does not waste my time and it does not insult my intelligence either, and a quick look at swamptweed was the same, balanced respectful writing that makes a person feel welcome rather than rushed through pages of forced engagement just to keep clicking around.
Time spent here today felt productive in the way that good reading sessions sometimes do, and a stop at maplecrestcraftcollective extended that productive feeling across the rest of the morning, the difference between productive reading and merely passing time is real and this site is consistently on the productive side for me lately.
Thanks for taking the time to write this, it is clear that some thought went into how each point would land, and after I went through sunharborcommercegallery I had a better grip on the topic, real value without the usual marketing noise people have to put up with online when searching for answers.
However measured this site clears the bar I set for sites I take seriously, and a stop at brightwinner continued clearing that bar, the metrics I use for site quality are admittedly informal but they are consistent and this site has cleared them on multiple measurements across multiple visits which is meaningful for my evaluation.
Looking at this objectively the editorial quality is hard to deny even setting aside personal taste, and a stop at nyxsip maintained the same objective quality, the gap between what I personally enjoy and what is objectively well crafted exists and this site clears both bars simultaneously which is rarer than it sounds.
Worth marking the moment when reading this clicked into something useful for my own work, and a look at ideamapper extended that practical click, content that connects to my actual life rather than just being interesting is content with the highest kind of value and this site is generating that connection at a high rate.
Good post, the kind that respects the reader by getting to the point quickly without skipping the details that matter, and a short look at forwardthinkinghub confirmed that approach is consistent across the site which is rare to find online these days, definitely a place I will return to soon.
Anyone curious about this topic would do well to start here, the foundation laid is solid, and a stop at forwardpathway would round out their understanding nicely, this is the kind of resource I would point a friend toward without hesitation if they asked me where to begin learning about anything in this area.
A thoughtful read in a week that has been mostly noisy, and a look at ideaorchestration carried that thoughtful quality across more pages, finding pockets of considered writing in a week of distractions is one of the small wins of careful curation and this site is providing those pockets at a sustainable rate.
Honest assessment is that this is one of the better short reads I have had this week, and a look at directionbeforemotion reinforced that, the bar for short content is low because most of it sacrifices substance for brevity but this site manages both at once which is harder than it sounds for most writers attempting it.
Took something from this I did not expect to find, and a stop at focuscontrol added another unexpected useful piece, content that exceeds expectations rather than just meeting them is the kind that builds enthusiasm and earns repeat visits without any explicit ask from the writer or platform behind the work being read.
Glad I stumbled across this post, the explanations actually make sense without needing background knowledge to follow along, and after a stop at clarityactionhub the same was true there, no assumptions about the reader just clear writing that anyone can understand from the first line right through to the end.
The post made the topic feel approachable without making it feel trivial, that is a fine balance, and a stop at ozoneosprey maintained the same balance, finding the middle ground between welcoming and serious is genuinely difficult and the writers here have clearly figured out how to consistently hit it well across many different posts.
Honest opinion is that this is the kind of post that builds long term trust with readers, and a look at privetplain reinforced that perception, the slow accumulation of trust through consistent quality is the only sustainable way to build a real audience and this site is clearly playing that long game.
Now setting up a small reminder to revisit the site on a slow day, and a stop at bazariox confirmed the reminder was a good idea, planning return visits is a small organisational act that signals trust in ongoing quality and this site has earned that planned return through consistent performance across the pieces I have read so far.
Reading this triggered a small but real correction in something I had assumed, and a stop at tavzoro extended that corrective effect, content that updates my beliefs through evidence rather than rhetoric is content with intellectual integrity and this site has earned that label consistently across the pieces I have read so far today.
This actually answered the question I had been searching for, and after I checked mastlarch I had a few more pieces I had not realised I needed, that is the sign of a site that knows what its readers want before they even know how to ask it which is impressive.
Skipped to a specific section because I knew that was the question I had, and the answer was clean, and a stop at trendrivo similarly delivered targeted answers without burying them, content engineered for readers who arrive with specific needs rather than open ended browsing is increasingly valuable in a search heavy reading environment.
Came in skeptical and left mostly convinced, that is the highest praise I can offer, and a look at motionbuilder pushed me further in the same direction, content that survives a critical first read is rare and worth recognising because most blog posts crumble under any real scrutiny these days when you actually pay attention closely.
Thanks for keeping things clear and to the point, that is honestly hard to find online these days, and after reading through growthalignsforward the message stayed consistent which makes me trust the information being shared more than I usually do on similar pages that cover this same kind of topic.
Took my time with this rather than rushing because the writing rewards attention, and after growthfollowsdesign I had even more to absorb, the kind of content that pays back the patient reader rather than punishing them with empty filler is something I look for and rarely find in regular searches lately.
Different feel from the algorithmically optimised posts that dominate the topic, and a stop at forwardgrowthengine reinforced that human touch, you can tell when a site is being run by someone who reads what they publish versus someone just hitting submit and moving on quickly to the next assignment without checking the result.
Decided not to comment because the post said what needed saying, and a stop at ideasneedprecision continued that complete feel, content that does not invite obvious additions or corrections from readers is content that has been carefully considered and this site appears to consistently produce pieces that satisfy rather than provoke unnecessary follow ups.
Came in tired from a long day and the writing held my attention anyway, and a stop at ideasfuelmovement kept that going, content that can engage a fatigued reader is doing something right because most online reading happens in suboptimal conditions like that one and quality content adapts to it without complaint.
Worth flagging that the writing rewarded a second read more than I expected, and a look at modernflow produced the same second read benefit, content with hidden depths that emerge only on careful rereading is rare in the modern blog space and this site has clearly invested in that level of compositional density throughout.
A piece that ended with a clean landing rather than fading out, and a look at actionbuildsmomentum maintained the same crisp conclusions, endings that resolve rather than dissolve are a sign of careful structural thinking and this site has clearly invested in how its pieces conclude rather than letting them simply run out of energy.
This actually answered the question I had been searching for, and after I checked successchain I had a few more pieces I had not realised I needed, that is the sign of a site that knows what its readers want before they even know how to ask it which is impressive.
A piece that reads as if the writer trusted readers to fill in obvious gaps, and a look at stylecorner continued that respectful approach, content that does not over explain what the reader can infer is content that respects intelligence and this site has clearly chosen to write to capable readers rather than to the lowest common denominator.
Granted my mood today might be elevating my reading experience but I still think this is genuinely good, and a stop at unityheritagebond reinforced that even discounted assessment, controlling for the mood adjustment that affects content perception this site still reads as substantively above average across multiple pieces I have read carefully today.
Felt a small spark of recognition when the post named something I had been struggling to articulate, and a look at bondedvaluechain produced more such moments, the rare service of giving readers language for fuzzy intuitions is one of the higher values that good writing can provide and this site offered several today instances.
Most blog writing on this subject reaches for the same handful of arguments and this post avoided them, and a look at integrityaxis continued the original treatment, content that finds its own path through territory other writers have flattened is content with real authorial energy and this site has plenty of that distinctive energy.
Worth flagging that the writing rewarded a second read more than I expected, and a look at trustedcapitalbond produced the same second read benefit, content with hidden depths that emerge only on careful rereading is rare in the modern blog space and this site has clearly invested in that level of compositional density throughout.
Now recognising that this site has earned a place in the small group of resources I treat as authoritative, and a stop at focusbuilder confirmed that placement, the difference between resources I trust and resources I just consume is real and this site has clearly moved into the trusted category through consistent quality over time.
Felt the writer was speaking my language without trying to imitate it, and a look at trendhub continued that natural fit, when a writers default voice happens to match what you find easy to read the experience feels frictionless and that is something I notice and remember about specific sites going forward.
Now feeling slightly more committed to my own careful reading practices having read this, and a stop at trustnexus reinforced that commitment, content that models the kind of attention it deserves is content that calibrates the reader and this site has clearly raised my own bar for what to bring to good writing today.
Worth saying that the quiet confidence of the writing is what landed first, and a look at unitybondline continued that quiet quality, confident writing without the loud display of confidence is a rare combination and this site has clearly developed both the knowledge and the editorial restraint to land that combination consistently.
Closed the laptop and walked away thinking about the post for a good twenty minutes, and a stop at frontlinebond produced similar lingering thoughts, content that survives the closing of the browser tab is content that has actually entered the mind rather than just decorating the screen for the duration of the reading.
Nice and clean, that is the best way to describe the writing here, no clutter and no wasted words, and a quick visit to progressigniter kept that going, I appreciate when a site treats its readers like people who can think for themselves without needing constant hand holding through every paragraph.
Really like that the writer trusts the reader to follow simple logic without restating every previous point, and a stop at crowncapital kept that respect going, treating an audience as capable adults rather than as people who need constant hand holding makes a noticeable difference in the reading experience for me.
Now noticing that the post avoided the temptation to be funny in places where humour would have undermined the substance, and a stop at rosequartzmarket maintained the same restraint, knowing when to be serious is a rare editorial virtue and this site has clearly developed it through what I assume is careful editorial practice over years.
A piece that did not try to be timeless and ended up reading as durable anyway, and a look at corestead extended that durable feel, content that stays useful past its publication date without straining for permanence is content that ages well and this site has the kind of evergreen quality that I value highly today.